# Probability on The No Agenda Show

Probability comes up in 14 chapters across 14 episodes of The No Agenda Show, from June 2009 to April 2023.

- **Chapters:** 14
- **Episodes:** 14
- **Discussed:** June 2009 – April 2023
- **Related topics:** [Probable Cause](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/probable-cause.md), [Fourth Amendment](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/fourth-amendment.md), [Search Warrant](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/search-warrant.md), [Texas](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/texas.md), [Andrew Yang](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/andrew-yang.md), [Austin](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/austin.md), [Bellingcat](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/bellingcat.md), [Benghazi](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/benghazi.md), [Border Patrol](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/border-patrol.md), [Breakthrough Infections](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/breakthrough-infections.md)

## Chapters 1–14 of 14

### Privacy Laws and Honeypot Operations

- **Episode:** [1547: A Sally](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1547-a-sally.md)
- **Published:** 2023-04-16
- **Time:** 1:02:31–1:06:54
- **Transcript:** https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1547-a-sally/chapter/privacy-laws-and-honeypot-operations.md

The claim that government agencies cannot enter private chat rooms without probable cause is dismissed as a lie intended to deceive the public. Analysts suggest that there is no true expectation of privacy on the internet and that the involvement of organizations like Bellingcat helps the government bypass legal hurdles. The narrative is framed as part of a "honeypot" scheme to monitor whistleblowers and foreign spies.

Keywords: [privacy laws](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/privacy-laws.md), [probable cause](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/probable-cause.md), [bellingcat](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/bellingcat.md), [honeypot](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/honeypot.md), [surveillance](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/surveillance.md)

### AI Probability Calculations, Andrew Yang, False Idols

- **Episode:** [1542: Digital Dementia](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1542-digital-dementia.md)
- **Published:** 2023-03-30
- **Time:** 25:40–28:02
- **Transcript:** https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1542-digital-dementia/chapter/ai-probability-calculations-andrew-yang-false-idols.md

The hosts argue that AI is merely performing probability calculations based on large language models, similar to how chess computers operate. They criticize the elevation of figures like Andrew Yang and Steve Wozniak as "intellectual giants" in the AI debate. The segment characterizes the current AI movement as a "false idol" replacing previous scientific trends.

Keywords: probability calculation, [andrew yang](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/andrew-yang.md), [steve wozniak](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/steve-wozniak.md), [large language models](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/large-language-models.md), chess computers

### Department of Justice Search Warrant Standards, Merrick Garland Approval

- **Episode:** [1476: Woke Waiver](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1476-woke-waiver.md)
- **Published:** 2022-08-12
- **Time:** 10:14–14:26
- **Transcript:** https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1476-woke-waiver/chapter/department-of-justice-search-warrant-standards-merrick-garland-approval.md

Former Deputy Attorney General Donald Ayer explains the high legal standards required for the Department of Justice to seek a search warrant against a former president. The process involves intense scrutiny and probable cause of criminality, necessitating approval from the highest levels of the FBI and DOJ. Attorney General Merrick Garland is identified as the official who would have ultimately signed off on the unprecedented legal action.

Keywords: [merrick garland](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/merrick-garland.md), [department of justice](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/department-of-justice.md), [fbi](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/fbi.md), [search warrant](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/search-warrant.md), [probable cause](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/probable-cause.md)

### The Guardian, Vaccine Breakthrough Deaths, Probable Cases

- **Episode:** [1363: Attribution Science](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1363-attribution-science.md)
- **Published:** 2021-07-12
- **Time:** 43:25–47:06
- **Transcript:** https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1363-attribution-science/chapter/the-guardian-vaccine-breakthrough-deaths-probable-cases.md

The Guardian reported that a majority of recent COVID-19 deaths in England occurred among vaccinated individuals, a phenomenon described as an expected outcome of an effective but imperfect vaccine in a highly vaccinated population. Additionally, health agencies are increasingly using "probable cases" in their reporting, which critics argue may include false positives or standard influenza cases.

Keywords: [the guardian](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/the-guardian.md), [england](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/england.md), [breakthrough infections](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/breakthrough-infections.md), probable cases, [vaccine efficacy](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/vaccine-efficacy.md)

### Collin County Texas, COVID-19 Probable Case Definitions

- **Episode:** [1256: White Tears](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1256-white-tears.md)
- **Published:** 2020-07-02
- **Time:** 25:26–27:53
- **Transcript:** https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1256-white-tears/chapter/collin-county-texas-covid-19-probable-case-definitions.md

A May 18th Collin County City Council meeting revealed that the Texas Department of State Health Services adopted a "probable case" definition for COVID-19. Under these rules, individuals in contact with a single confirmed case can be added to the official case count without being tested themselves. This change in reporting methodology is cited as a primary driver for the reported "surge" in Texas.

Keywords: collin county, [texas](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/texas.md), [pcr test](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/pcr-test.md), probable cases, case counting

### Jeffrey Epstein 2009 Deposition, Physical Descriptions

- **Episode:** [1160: VAT Camel](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1160-vat-camel.md)
- **Published:** 2019-08-04
- **Time:** 2:30:14–2:33:41
- **Transcript:** https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1160-vat-camel/chapter/jeffrey-epstein-2009-deposition-physical-descriptions.md

A leaked 2009 deposition of Jeffrey Epstein features a lawyer asking about a witness's description of Epstein's anatomy as "egg-shaped." Epstein's legal team immediately objected to the line of questioning, leading to a brief adjournment of the proceedings.

Keywords: [jeffrey epstein](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/jeffrey-epstein.md), [deposition](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/deposition.md), egg-shaped, lawyer, [probable cause](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/probable-cause.md)

### Warrant-Proof Places, Constitutional Search and Seizure

- **Episode:** [804: Evidence Free Zone](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/804-evidence-free-zone.md)
- **Published:** 2016-03-03
- **Time:** 1:57:11–2:00:30
- **Transcript:** https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/804-evidence-free-zone/chapter/warrant-proof-places-constitutional-search-and-seizure.md

Director Comey argued that the U.S. is moving toward a society with "warrant-proof places," which he claims is a departure from historical norms. The hosts counter that encrypted hard drives have existed for years and that the current focus on iPhones is a marketing and PR battle.

Keywords: [constitution](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/constitution.md), [search warrant](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/search-warrant.md), [probable cause](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/probable-cause.md), [fourth amendment](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/fourth-amendment.md), [encryption](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/encryption.md)

### Fourth Amendment, Probable Cause Fishing Expedition

- **Episode:** [802: Warehouse of Souls](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/802-warehouse-of-souls.md)
- **Published:** 2016-02-25
- **Time:** 1:27:00–1:30:05
- **Transcript:** https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/802-warehouse-of-souls/chapter/fourth-amendment-probable-cause-fishing-expedition.md

Legal experts argue that the FBI's demand for Apple to unlock the San Bernardino shooter's phone constitutes a "fishing expedition" rather than a standard search based on probable cause. Because the suspect is deceased and the government is looking for unknown potential crimes, critics claim the Fourth Amendment protections against unreasonable search and seizure are being bypassed.

Keywords: [fourth amendment](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/fourth-amendment.md), [probable cause](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/probable-cause.md), ted olson, [san bernardino](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/san-bernardino.md), fishing expedition

### Climate Probability vs Fact, Scientific Methodology and Political Rhetoric

- **Episode:** [690: Win by a Gyp](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/690-win-by-a-gyp.md)
- **Published:** 2015-01-25
- **Time:** 1:45:27–1:47:50
- **Transcript:** https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/690-win-by-a-gyp/chapter/climate-probability-vs-fact-scientific-methodology-and-political-rhetoric.md

The discussion continues regarding the discrepancy between NOAA and NASA temperature data. The hosts highlight that the ranking of "record years" is highly sensitive to methodology and coverage. They criticize the "fair bit of confidence" expressed by scientists when their own data shows it is more likely that 2014 was NOT the warmest year on record.

Keywords: [noaa](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/noaa.md), [nasa](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/nasa.md), temperature ranking, [probability](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/probability.md), [climate science](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/climate-science.md)

### Random Number Three, Coincidence and Hillary Clinton

- **Episode:** [673: Imperial News](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/673-imperial-news.md)
- **Published:** 2014-11-27
- **Time:** 1:04:38–1:08:09
- **Transcript:** https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/673-imperial-news/chapter/random-number-three-coincidence-and-hillary-clinton.md

John C. Dvorak discusses the "random number three" phenomenon after receiving two identical donation amounts of $234.56 back-to-back. The segment includes a sound bite of Hillary Clinton's "What difference does it make?" testimony and a mention of the Luck Dragon from Zero Hedge.

Keywords: random numbers, [probability](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/probability.md), [hillary clinton](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/hillary-clinton.md), [benghazi](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/benghazi.md), luck dragon

### Climate Model Simulations and Probability Scales

- **Episode:** [552: Almost Certain = Fact!](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/552-almost-certain-fact.md)
- **Published:** 2013-09-29
- **Time:** 1:21:29–1:25:33
- **Transcript:** https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/552-almost-certain-fact/chapter/climate-model-simulations-and-probability-scales.md

The hosts examine the methodology of the IPCC report, which relies heavily on computer simulations and "qualitative levels of confidence." They explain that the widely cited "95% certainty" figure is an extrapolation of the term "extremely likely" rather than a direct statistical fact. They argue the report is based on consensus and agreement rather than definitive proof.

Keywords: [climate models](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/climate-models.md), [computer simulations](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/computer-simulations.md), [probability](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/probability.md), extremely likely, [ipcc](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/ipcc.md)

### Obama Explains FISA Warrants and Wiretaps

- **Episode:** [523: by Law and by Rule](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/523-by-law-and-by-rule.md)
- **Published:** 2013-06-20
- **Time:** 1:07:29–1:11:09
- **Transcript:** https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/523-by-law-and-by-rule/chapter/obama-explains-fisa-warrants-and-wiretaps.md

President Obama claims the NSA cannot listen to phone calls or "target" emails without a court order based on probable cause. The hosts argue this is a deceptive "theater of the mind" that ignores the fact that data is already recorded and stored for future retrieval. They emphasize that the government simply retrieves stored data rather than setting up traditional wiretaps.

Keywords: [wiretap](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/wiretap.md), [fisa court](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/fisa-court.md), [probable cause](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/probable-cause.md), [nsa](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/nsa.md), [warrants](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/warrants.md), [metadata](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/metadata.md)

### Border Patrol Checkpoint, Texas Relocation Tribulations

- **Episode:** [357: Rotational Deployment](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/357-rotational-deployment.md)
- **Published:** 2011-11-17
- **Time:** 7:19
- **Transcript:** https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/357-rotational-deployment/chapter/border-patrol-checkpoint-texas-relocation-tribulations.md

A host describes a relocation to Austin, Texas, involving a confrontation at a highway border patrol checkpoint on I-10. The account details a drug dog's false positive on a vehicle containing wine and plants, leading to a search and a temporary detention. The narrative highlights the use of prison cells for restroom breaks and the perceived lack of Fourth Amendment protections at internal checkpoints.

Keywords: [austin](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/austin.md), [texas](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/texas.md), [border patrol](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/border-patrol.md), [las cruces](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/las-cruces.md), [fourth amendment](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/fourth-amendment.md), [drug dogs](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/drug-dogs.md), [probable cause](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/probable-cause.md)

### Stephen Colbert in Iraq, Zoology Pronunciation

- **Episode:** [104: Furries Forever](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/104-furries-forever.md)
- **Published:** 2009-06-14
- **Time:** 27:16–29:21
- **Transcript:** https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/104-furries-forever/chapter/stephen-colbert-in-iraq-zoology-pronunciation.md

Stephen Colbert traveled to Iraq to film episodes of "The Colbert Report" for US troops, featuring an interview with the Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister. The hosts notice that the official also mispronounced "zoology" while discussing his background in probability. They debate the correct pronunciation of the field, noting that "zoology" is often corrected to "zo-ology" in academic settings.

Keywords: [stephen colbert](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/stephen-colbert.md), [iraq](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/iraq.md), [zoology](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/zoology.md), [probability](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/probability.md), [jon stewart](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/jon-stewart.md)

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