# Nate Silver on The No Agenda Show Nate Silver comes up in 12 chapters across 11 episodes of The No Agenda Show, from November 2012 to November 2020. - **Chapters:** 12 - **Episodes:** 11 - **Discussed:** November 2012 – November 2020 - **Related topics:** [Hillary Clinton](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/hillary-clinton.md), [Polling](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/polling.md), [538](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/538.md), [New York Times](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/new-york-times.md), [2016 Election](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/2016-election.md), [Advertising Revenue](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/advertising-revenue.md), [Amazon](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/amazon.md), [Anonymous Sources](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/anonymous-sources.md), [Bbc](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/bbc.md), [Ben Shapiro](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/ben-shapiro.md) ## Chapters 1–12 of 12 ### Trafalgar Group Polling Accuracy and Nate Silver Failures - **Episode:** [1292: Killing Mink](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1292-killing-mink.md) - **Published:** 2020-11-06 - **Time:** 9:44–12:10 - **Transcript:** https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1292-killing-mink/chapter/trafalgar-group-polling-accuracy-and-nate-silver-failures.md The Trafalgar Group emerged as a rare accurate polling entity by predicting Republican Senate retention and House gains, contrasting with Nate Silver's incorrect prediction of a "blue" Texas. Traditional phone polling is described as obsolete due to the "social desirability bias" where Republican voters refuse to engage with pollsters. Effective modern polling now requires ground-level neighborhood assessments similar to investigative techniques. Keywords: trafalgar group, [nate silver](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/nate-silver.md), [ben shapiro](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/ben-shapiro.md), [senate](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/senate.md), polling methodology ### Stacey Abrams' Presidential Ambitions and Hillary Clinton Rumors - **Episode:** [1213: Kung Flu](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1213-kung-flu.md) - **Published:** 2020-02-06 - **Time:** 50:15–52:39 - **Transcript:** https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1213-kung-flu/chapter/stacey-abrams-presidential-ambitions-and-hillary-clinton-rumors.md Stacey Abrams tells Nate Silver of 538 that she plans to be president within the next 20 years. The hosts discuss the possibility of Hillary Clinton joining Joe Biden's ticket as a Vice Presidential candidate. They debate whether this "Occam's Razor" theory is a viable strategy for the Democratic establishment to regain power. Keywords: [stacey abrams](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/stacey-abrams.md), [nate silver](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/nate-silver.md), [538](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/538.md), [hillary clinton](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/hillary-clinton.md), [vice president](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/vice-president.md) ### Bloomberg's Brokered Convention Strategy and Fox News Apology - **Episode:** [1195: Iranahams](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1195-iranahams.md) - **Published:** 2019-12-05 - **Time:** 2:11:47–2:16:24 - **Transcript:** https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1195-iranahams/chapter/bloomberg-s-brokered-convention-strategy-and-fox-news-apology.md Nate Silver suggests Michael Bloomberg's campaign strategy is focused on facilitating a brokered convention rather than winning early states. On Fox News, a guest compared Hillary Clinton to "herpes" because she won't go away, prompting an immediate apology from the network. The hosts interpret this defensive reaction as a sign that Clinton may be planning a late entry into the race. Keywords: [michael bloomberg](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/michael-bloomberg.md), [hillary clinton](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/hillary-clinton.md), [fox news](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/fox-news.md), [brokered convention](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/brokered-convention.md), [nate silver](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/nate-silver.md) ### Nate Silver, Anonymous Source Reliability Claims - **Episode:** [1037: Bug Ramen](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1037-bug-ramen.md) - **Published:** 2018-06-03 - **Time:** 2:49:06–2:51:46 - **Transcript:** https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1037-bug-ramen/chapter/nate-silver-anonymous-source-reliability-claims.md Nate Silver of 538 published a guide suggesting that anonymous sources "familiar with a person's thinking" are often reliable. This claim is criticized as a way to institutionalize psychic-style reporting in mainstream journalism, particularly in the New York Times and Washington Post. The hosts argue that such sourcing allows media organizations to print unverifiable claims without accountability. Keywords: [nate silver](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/nate-silver.md), [538](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/538.md), [anonymous sources](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/anonymous-sources.md), [journalism ethics](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/journalism-ethics.md), [media bias](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/media-bias.md) ### Hillary Clinton Book Tour and Election Loss Excuses - **Episode:** [964: 6th Mass Extinction](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/964-6th-mass-extinction.md) - **Published:** 2017-09-14 - **Time:** 2:18–10:02 - **Transcript:** https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/964-6th-mass-extinction/chapter/hillary-clinton-book-tour-and-election-loss-excuses.md Hillary Clinton discusses her memoir What Happened during a media tour, attributing her 2016 election loss to the James Comey memo and Russian interference. The hosts analyze polling data from Nate Silver and criticize the narrative that late-stage campaign events were the primary cause of her defeat. Reports indicate Amazon is actively deleting one-star reviews for the autobiography to normalize data ratings. Keywords: [hillary clinton](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/hillary-clinton.md), [james comey](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/james-comey.md), [nate silver](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/nate-silver.md), [what happened](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/what-happened.md), [amazon](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/amazon.md) ### Hillary Clinton Claims Popular Vote Victory and Criticizes Donald Trump - **Episode:** [926: GREP](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/926-grep.md) - **Published:** 2017-05-04 - **Time:** 17:02–23:18 - **Transcript:** https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/926-grep/chapter/hillary-clinton-claims-popular-vote-victory-and-criticizes-donald-trump.md Hillary Clinton cited analyst Nate Silver to argue she was on track for victory until late October "intervening events" occurred. She emphasized her three-million-vote lead in the popular vote and dismissed Donald Trump's tweets as a diversion from national security concerns. The discussion highlights her use of the term "Russian WikiLeaks" to link the email leaks directly to foreign state interference. Keywords: [hillary clinton](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/hillary-clinton.md), [nate silver](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/nate-silver.md), [popular vote](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/popular-vote.md), [donald trump](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/donald-trump.md), [wikileaks](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/wikileaks.md) ### Data Science Failure, Huffington Post and Media Influence - **Episode:** [876: Election Special](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/876-election-special.md) - **Published:** 2016-11-10 - **Time:** 1:05:43–1:07:30 - **Transcript:** https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/876-election-special/chapter/data-science-failure-huffington-post-and-media-influence.md The failure of "data science" and predictive modeling, exemplified by Nate Silver and the New York Times "meter," is discussed. The hosts highlight the Huffington Post's decision to categorize Trump's campaign as "entertainment" for months. They conclude that the mainstream media was the biggest loser of the election for trying to influence the outcome rather than report on it. Keywords: [nate silver](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/nate-silver.md), [huffington post](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/huffington-post.md), [data science](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/data-science.md), [new york times](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/new-york-times.md), [mainstream media](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/mainstream-media.md) ### Polling Industry Pre-Excusing Election Prediction Failures - **Episode:** [830: Tool Followers](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/830-tool-followers.md) - **Published:** 2016-06-04 - **Time:** 1:06:53–1:09:46 - **Transcript:** https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/830-tool-followers/chapter/polling-industry-pre-excusing-election-prediction-failures.md An article from The Hill suggests that pollsters are already expressing doubt about their ability to accurately predict the Trump-Clinton election due to high unfavorable ratings. The hosts interpret this as the polling industry "pre-excusing" future failures or potential fraud, following their failure to predict the rise of Donald Trump. Keywords: [nate silver](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/nate-silver.md), [polling](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/polling.md), [2016 election](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/2016-election.md), [the hill](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/the-hill.md), media fraud ### International Election Coverage, Michigan Economic Decline - **Episode:** [806: Babushkas of Chernobyl](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/806-babushkas-of-chernobyl.md) - **Published:** 2016-03-10 - **Time:** 1:32:19–1:37:23 - **Transcript:** https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/806-babushkas-of-chernobyl/chapter/international-election-coverage-michigan-economic-decline.md European news outlets like France 24 and Deutsche Welle provide extensive coverage of the U.S. elections, often focusing on the "Trump as Hitler" narrative. The hosts discuss the failure of pollsters like Nate Silver to predict the Michigan primary outcome due to reliance on landline data. They describe the economic destruction in Michigan as a primary driver for both Trump and Sanders voters. Keywords: [france 24](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/france-24.md), [deutsche welle](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/deutsche-welle.md), [detroit](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/detroit.md), [nate silver](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/nate-silver.md), [polling](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/polling.md) ### Polling Rigging and Dialogue with a Stanford Professor - **Episode:** [778: Long Gun](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/778-long-gun.md) - **Published:** 2015-12-03 - **Time:** 2:31:10–2:34:38 - **Transcript:** https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/778-long-gun/chapter/polling-rigging-and-dialogue-with-a-stanford-professor.md Adam Curry recounts a Facebook dialogue with the Stanford professor regarding the validity of political polls. Curry argues that polls are funded by media organizations to "rig the audience" and generate advertising revenue for campaigns. The professor surprisingly agrees with this assessment, leading the hosts to joke that Curry is the "reasonable one" in the conversation. Keywords: [nate silver](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/nate-silver.md), [polling](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/polling.md), media rigging, [stanford university](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/stanford-university.md), [advertising revenue](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/advertising-revenue.md) ### Nate Silver, UNIVAC Election Prediction Comparison - **Episode:** [459: Exactly Similar](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/459-exactly-similar.md) - **Published:** 2012-11-08 - **Time:** 31:48–35:54 - **Transcript:** https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/459-exactly-similar/chapter/nate-silver-univac-election-prediction-comparison.md Nate Silver's 2012 election predictions are compared to the 1952 UNIVAC computer's landslide prediction for Eisenhower. Silver, writing for The New York Times, utilized a computer program designed four years prior to forecast a 75% chance of an Obama victory. Keywords: [nate silver](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/nate-silver.md), univac, remington rand, [statistical modeling](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/statistical-modeling.md), [new york times](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/new-york-times.md) ### Political Fundraising Scam, Election Polling Manipulation - **Episode:** [459: Exactly Similar](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/459-exactly-similar.md) - **Published:** 2012-11-08 - **Time:** 41:21–43:48 - **Transcript:** https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/459-exactly-similar/chapter/political-fundraising-scam-election-polling-manipulation.md The 2012 election is characterized as a financial operation designed to maximize contributions by maintaining the appearance of a close race. While Nate Silver's models showed a consistent Obama lead, media outlets and pollsters allegedly suppressed this reality to continue "soaking" donors for $30,000-a-plate dinners. Keywords: [campaign finance](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/campaign-finance.md), [nate silver](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/nate-silver.md), gallup polls, [bbc](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/bbc.md), [election cycle](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/election-cycle.md) --- This is the markdown version of a page on The No Agenda Show for AI agents. 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