# Error Bars

> Global energy markets face a $300 oil threat as the FBI monitors potential drone strikes and domestic ISIS recruitment efforts targeting minors on gaming platforms.

- **Show:** [The No Agenda Show](https://search.noagendashow.net/index.md)
- **Episode:** 1850
- **Published:** 2026-03-12
- **Length:** 3h 16m
- **People:** [Adam Curry](https://search.noagendashow.net/person/adam-curry.md) (host), [John C Dvorak](https://search.noagendashow.net/person/john-c-dvorak.md) (host)
- **Topics:** Iranian drones, TATP explosives, Oil swap, V32 signal, [Sam Altman](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/sam-altman.md), Palantir ELITE, [Strait of Hormuz](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/strait-of-hormuz.md)
- **Web page:** https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars

## About this episode

The FBI issued a high-level warning to California law enforcement regarding potential Iranian drone attacks launched from vessels off the West Coast. While Governor Gavin Newsom and Mayor Karen Bass acknowledge the alert, officials maintain there is no confirmed threat to the upcoming Academy Awards at the Dolby Theater. This security escalation follows the appearance of a mysterious shortwave number station, V32, which experts suggest may be a CIA or Mossad false flag operation.

In New York City, two teenagers from Bucks County, Pennsylvania, were arrested near Gracie Mansion for an alleged ISIS-inspired bombing plot involving TATP explosives, known as the Mother of Satan. Investigations into the suspects revealed a storage unit containing explosive residue and notebooks detailing soft targets like shopping centers. Meanwhile, Colonel Douglas McGregor warned Tucker Carlson of a global economic catastrophe, predicting oil prices could hit $300 per barrel if conflict with Iran continues to disrupt refineries in Tehran and Haifa. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has responded by initiating a 172-million-barrel swap from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to stabilize volatile global markets.

John C. Dvorak provided a brief audio update from his hospital rehabilitation ward, expressing optimism about a return to the microphone despite lingering fatigue. Mimi Smith-Dvorak criticized Pacific Northwest meteorologists for inaccurate sunbreak predictions while praising the efficacy of physical letter-writing over digital surveys in Washington State politics. The program concluded with a musical mix by Follow the Monkey and a recommendation for Panoxyl PM spot patches.

## Chapters

Each chapter's transcript is at its own link. The whole transcript is at https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/transcript.md.

### 1. Weather Forecast Skepticism, Fredericksburg Storm Report (0:00–1:33)

Mimi Smith-Dvorak and a co-host open the program by criticizing Pacific Northwest meteorologists for inaccurate "sunbreak" predictions. The discussion shifts to a recent storm in Fredericksburg, Texas, which missed the area despite dire warnings from weather personality Max Velocity.

Keywords: [mimi smith-dvorak](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/mimi-smith-dvorak.md), [max velocity](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/max-velocity.md), [fredericksburg](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/fredericksburg.md), [weather machine](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/weather-machine.md), sunbreaks

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/1.md)

### 2. John C. Dvorak Hospital Update, Recovery Progress (1:33–4:53)

John C. Dvorak provides a brief audio update from a hospital rehabilitation ward, expressing optimism about returning to the microphone within a week. Reports indicate he is practicing mobility with an occupational therapist, though he remains easily fatigued and experiences pain when laughing or coughing.

Keywords: [john c. dvorak](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/john-c-dvorak.md), hospital rehab, [occupational therapy](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/occupational-therapy.md), [dana brunetti](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/dana-brunetti.md), [recovery](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/recovery.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/2.md)

### 3. Medicare Coverage Confusion, Hospital Billing Questions (4:52–7:36)

A discussion regarding the specifics of Medicare coverage arises following a listener's concern about the 80/20 split versus a reported 60% coverage rate. The hosts note the difficulty in obtaining transparent pricing for hospital stays and rehabilitation services, as staff often claim such information is above their pay grade.

Keywords: [medicare](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/medicare.md), hospital bills, part a, part b, [insurance coverage](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/insurance-coverage.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/3.md)

### 4. California Drone Threat, FBI Warning for Oscars (7:36–12:02)

The FBI issued a warning to California law enforcement regarding potential Iranian drone attacks launched from vessels off the West Coast. While Governor Gavin Newsom and Mayor Karen Bass are aware of the alert, officials emphasize there is no confirmed threat to the upcoming Academy Awards at the Dolby Theater.

Keywords: [fbi](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/fbi.md), [gavin newsom](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/gavin-newsom.md), [karen bass](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/karen-bass.md), [drone attack](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/drone-attack.md), [oscars](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/oscars.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/4.md)

### 5. Shortwave Number Stations, Iranian V32 Signal Analysis (12:02–17:34)

A new shortwave number station, designated V32, appeared on 7910kHz following the death of an Iranian leader. Experts from Ringway Manchester suggest the signal may be a "false flag" operated by the CIA or Mossad to signal agents within Iran, noting that the signal is being heavily jammed by Iranian bubble jammers.

Keywords: [shortwave radio](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/shortwave-radio.md), [number stations](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/number-stations.md), v32, [iran](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/iran.md), [mossad](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/mossad.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/5.md)

### 6. 2CTV Credibility, Iranian Missile Report Discrepancies (17:34–20:38)

The hosts express skepticism regarding the news outlet 2CTV after a producer reported discrepancies in their coverage of Iranian missile strikes on Tel Aviv. Evidence suggests the outlet may have had pre-packaged reports ready before actual events occurred, leading to suspicions that it serves as a propaganda billboard.

Keywords: 2ctv, [iran](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/iran.md), [tel aviv](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/tel-aviv.md), [missiles](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/missiles.md), [propaganda](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/propaganda.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/6.md)

### 7. New York City Bomb Plot, Pennsylvania Teenagers Arrested (20:39–24:14)

Two teenagers from Bucks County, Pennsylvania, were arrested near Gracie Mansion in New York City for allegedly planning an ISIS-inspired bombing. Investigators discovered a storage unit containing explosive residue and a notebook detailing "soft targets" like shopping centers.

Keywords: emir balat, ibrahim qayyumi, [nypd](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/nypd.md), gracie mansion, [tatp](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/tatp.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/7.md)

### 8. TATP Explosives, Mother of Satan Online Tutorials (24:14–27:15)

The explosive used in the NYC plot, TATP (triacetone triperoxide), is known as the "Mother of Satan" due to its high instability. The hosts highlight how easily tutorials for creating this substance from household chemicals like acetone and hydrogen peroxide can be found on platforms like YouTube and Facebook.

Keywords: [tatp](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/tatp.md), triacetone triperoxide, mother of satan, [fbi](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/fbi.md), molecular playground

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/8.md)

### 9. ISIS Recruitment on Gaming Platforms, Roblox and Discord (27:15–30:13)

Reports suggest that ISIS is actively recruiting minors through gaming and social platforms like Roblox and Discord, using groups like "Cubs of the Caliphate." The discussion links these efforts to the broader "764" online extortion networks that target children for radicalization or exploitation.

Keywords: [isis](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/isis.md), roblox, [discord](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/discord.md), 764, cubs of the caliphate

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/9.md)

### 10. Zoran Mamdani Backlash, New York City Protest Controversy (30:13–32:14)

New York City official Zoran Mamdani faced criticism from Congressman Mike Lawler for his response to a protest at his home. Critics argue Mamdani focused on "white supremacists" while ignoring the radical Islamic motives of the suspects who targeted the location with homemade explosives.

Keywords: [zoran mamdani](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/zoran-mamdani.md), [mike lawler](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/mike-lawler.md), [islamism](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/islamism.md), [terrorism](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/terrorism.md), [new york city](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/new-york-city.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/10.md)

### 11. Anti-Drone Technology, Disaster Tech Lab Mesh Networks (32:14–35:15)

A representative from the non-profit Disaster Tech Lab discusses the efficacy of anti-drone technology in Europe and the deployment of mesh networks during crises. The FBI continues to monitor "aspirational" threats of drone usage by sympathetic actors within the United States.

Keywords: disaster tech lab, [mesh networks](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/mesh-networks.md), [drones](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/drones.md), [electronic warfare](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/electronic-warfare.md), [fbi](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/fbi.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/11.md)

### 12. Iranian Diaspora in California, Religious Demographics (35:15–36:58)

The hosts discuss the Iranian population in Los Angeles, noting that many are "Persians" who fled the 1979 revolution. They emphasize that this diaspora includes many Jewish and Christian Iranians who were persecuted by the Ayatollah's regime and should not be viewed as a collective security threat.

Keywords: persians, [los angeles](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/los-angeles.md), iranian jews, iranian christians, [ayatollah](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/ayatollah.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/12.md)

### 13. Media Coverage Disparities, Sky News Analysis (36:59–40:33)

An analysis using AI models suggests that legacy media outlets like CNN provide significantly more coverage to civilian deaths in Iran than to domestic ISIS-inspired attacks. The discussion posits that the low ratio of civilian casualties relative to the number of bombs dropped indicates a high level of military precision.

Keywords: [sky news](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/sky-news.md), [cnn](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/cnn.md), [iran](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/iran.md), civilian deaths, precision bombing

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/13.md)

### 14. Douglas McGregor Oil Crisis Warning, Tucker Carlson Interview (40:34–45:01)

Colonel Douglas McGregor appeared on Tucker Carlson's program to warn of a global economic catastrophe if the conflict with Iran continues. He predicted oil could reach $300 per barrel and cited retaliatory strikes on refineries in Tehran and Haifa as evidence of a semi-permanent disruption to the energy market.

Keywords: [douglas mcgregor](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/douglas-mcgregor.md), [tucker carson](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/tucker-carson.md), [oil prices](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/oil-prices.md), [haifa](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/haifa.md), [tehran](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/tehran.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/14.md)

### 15. European Energy Crisis, Ursula von der Leyen Strategy (45:01–47:44)

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen argues that returning to Russian fossil fuels would be a strategic blunder for the EU. She advocates for a transition to homegrown renewables and nuclear energy to mitigate the 3 billion euro increase in energy costs caused by the recent conflict.

Keywords: [ursula von der leyen](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/ursula-von-der-leyen.md), [european union](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/european-union.md), [fossil fuels](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/fossil-fuels.md), [renewables](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/renewables.md), [russia](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/russia.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/15.md)

### 16. Strait of Hormuz Naval Conflict, Strategic Petroleum Reserve (47:44–50:50)

The Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint as Iran threatens to skyrocket oil prices to $200 per barrel following U.S. strikes on mine-laying vessels. In response, President Trump and international partners have begun releasing significant oil reserves to stabilize global markets.

Keywords: [strait of hormuz](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/strait-of-hormuz.md), [donald trump](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/donald-trump.md), [spr](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/spr.md), [oil tankers](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/oil-tankers.md), [iran](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/iran.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/16.md)

### 17. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, Oil Swap Strategy (50:51–53:54)

Energy Secretary Chris Wright explains a "swap" strategy for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, releasing 172 million barrels now to be replaced by 200 million barrels later. This move aims to address short-term price spikes in Asia and the Western Hemisphere caused by Iranian threats.

Keywords: [chris wright](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/chris-wright.md), [spr](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/spr.md), oil swaps, [cnbc](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/cnbc.md), becky quick

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/17.md)

### 18. US Navy Tanker Escorts, Helium Supply Chain Risks (53:55–58:38)

The U.S. Navy is preparing to escort commercial oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz to counter Iranian aggression. Beyond oil, officials are concerned about the supply of helium, which is critical for semiconductor manufacturing and has no known substitute for its cooling properties.

Keywords: [us navy](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/us-navy.md), [helium](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/helium.md), [semiconductors](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/semiconductors.md), [strait of hormuz](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/strait-of-hormuz.md), [manufacturing](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/manufacturing.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/18.md)

### 19. Merchant Marine History, Sea Drone Warfare (58:38–1:00:55)

A host recounts their father's experience as a Merchant Marine in World War II and Vietnam, highlighting the historical vulnerability of supply ships. The discussion contrasts past naval warfare with modern "sea drones"—miniature speedboats designed to detonate against larger vessels.

Keywords: merchant marine, [world war ii](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/world-war-ii.md), [vietnam war](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/vietnam-war.md), [sea drones](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/sea-drones.md), [maritime security](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/maritime-security.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/19.md)

### 20. Chinese Military Technology Failures, Section 301 Tariffs (1:00:56–1:04:43)

Author Peter Schweitzer reports that Chinese air defense systems in Iran have failed to intercept American or Israeli aircraft, potentially exposing China as a "paper tiger" in military technology. Meanwhile, President Trump is considering Section 301 tariffs to address unfair trade practices and structural excess capacity in China.

Keywords: [peter schweitzer](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/peter-schweitzer.md), [china](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/china.md), [air defense](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/air-defense.md), section 301, [tariffs](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/tariffs.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/20.md)

### 21. War Definitions Quiz, Reason TV Satire (1:04:45–1:07:46)

A satirical quiz from Reason TV highlights the linguistic gymnastics used by the U.S. government to avoid the word "war." Terms like "kinetic action," "police action," and "preauthorized defense stabilization initiative" are used to describe conflicts in Vietnam, Libya, and Afghanistan.

Keywords: reason tv, [george carlin](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/george-carlin.md), kinetic action, police action, [military action](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/military-action.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/21.md)

### 22. Jesse Jackson Jr. Funeral Warning, Political Rhetoric (1:07:48–1:11:00)

Despite a plea from Jesse Jackson Jr. to keep his father's funeral non-political, speakers including Joe Biden and Kamala Harris reportedly used the service as a platform to criticize Donald Trump. Critics on social media and Substack accused the Democratic party of turning the "homegoing service" into a political rally.

Keywords: [jesse jackson jr](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/jesse-jackson-jr.md), [joe biden](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/joe-biden.md), [kamala harris](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/kamala-harris.md), [funeral](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/funeral.md), political rally

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/22.md)

### 23. American Cultural Arrogance, European Anti-Americanism (1:11:00–1:14:50)

The hosts reflect on their experiences living abroad in Iran and Holland during the 1970s, noting a pervasive "crazy American" sentiment. They describe a paradox where Europeans vocally criticized U.S. foreign policy while simultaneously consuming American products like Nike, Coca-Cola, and Jane Fonda workout tapes.

Keywords: [holland](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/holland.md), [iran](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/iran.md), [vietnam war](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/vietnam-war.md), [jane fonda](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/jane-fonda.md), cultural imperialism

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/23.md)

### 24. Washington State Politics, Letter Writing Efficacy (1:14:50–1:18:46)

A discussion on local governance in Washington State reveals that traditional letter-writing campaigns on physical paper are currently more effective at influencing legislators than emails or digital surveys. The hosts criticize Governor Jay Inslee's administration for pushing through a state income tax despite public opposition.

Keywords: [jay inslee](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/jay-inslee.md), [washington state](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/washington-state.md), [income tax](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/income-tax.md), [lobbying](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/lobbying.md), constituent services

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/24.md)

### 25. Washington State Voter Roll Discrepancies, Mail-In Ballots (1:18:47–1:23:35)

An investigation into Washington State voter records allegedly found individuals registered at homeless shelters, libraries, and memory care facilities in numbers exceeding capacity. The hosts also claim that the immediate destruction of ballot envelopes after signature verification prevents meaningful audits of election results.

Keywords: [voter fraud](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/voter-fraud.md), [mail-in ballots](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/mail-in-ballots.md), [jay inslee](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/jay-inslee.md), [homeless shelters](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/homeless-shelters.md), [barack obama](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/barack-obama.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/25.md)

### 26. AI Guardrails, Large Language Model Skepticism (1:23:35–1:27:55)

The concept of "guardrails" in AI is described as a set of invisible rules that mask the lack of true intelligence in large language models. While useful for "vibe coding" and writing Python scripts, the hosts argue that these systems have no memory or gut instinct, relying instead on a limited context window.

Keywords: [artificial intelligence](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/artificial-intelligence.md), [guardrails](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/guardrails.md), [python](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/python.md), [claude](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/claude.md), [gemini](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/gemini.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/26.md)

### 27. Andrew Yang on AI Job Displacement, Call Centers (1:27:59–1:32:14)

Andrew Yang warns that AI is on a "hockey stick" growth curve that will decimate entry-level white-collar jobs, particularly in call centers. He notes that the hiring of recent computer science graduates has fallen sharply as companies shift their budgets from human labor to "compute" and AI tokens.

Keywords: [andrew yang](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/andrew-yang.md), [anthropic](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/anthropic.md), [nvidia](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/nvidia.md), [call centers](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/call-centers.md), job automation

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/27.md)

### 28. Universal Basic Income, AI Tax Proposals (1:32:15–1:36:50)

Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei suggests that the government should tax AI companies to fund social safety nets as white-collar jobs are automated. Andrew Yang predicts that if AI successfully automates truck driving—the top job in 28 states—it could lead to widespread civil unrest and riots.

Keywords: [ubi](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/ubi.md), [dario amodei](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/dario-amodei.md), [jamie dimon](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/jamie-dimon.md), [truck drivers](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/truck-drivers.md), [riots](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/riots.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/28.md)

### 29. Word Processor History, AI in Air Traffic Control (1:36:50–1:41:47)

The hosts compare the current AI hype to the introduction of word processors, which eliminated the market for correction fluid. They express concern over the potential implementation of AI in critical infrastructure like 911 dispatch and air traffic control, arguing that machines lack human pattern recognition.

Keywords: word processors, whiteout, 911 dispatch, [air traffic control](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/air-traffic-control.md), [automation](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/automation.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/29.md)

### 30. Silicon Valley AI Circle Jerk, Data Center Power (1:41:47–1:44:32)

The AI industry is characterized as a "circle jerk" where Nvidia funds startups that in turn use the capital to buy Nvidia hardware. The hosts highlight the massive environmental and infrastructure costs of data centers being built across the U.S. to support non-profitable AI ventures.

Keywords: [silicon valley](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/silicon-valley.md), [nvidia](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/nvidia.md), [openai](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/openai.md), [data centers](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/data-centers.md), api pricing

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/30.md)

### 31. Sam Altman on Economic Utility, AI Startups (1:44:34–1:48:47)

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman claims the world has crossed a threshold into "major economic utility" for AI, particularly in coding and science. He observes a mental shift in startups that prioritize "compute" and "tokens" over hiring human employees to avoid slowing down their operations.

Keywords: [sam altman](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/sam-altman.md), [openai](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/openai.md), [agi](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/agi.md), [startups](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/startups.md), [compute](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/compute.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/31.md)

### 32. AGI Definitions, Moving the Goalposts (1:48:47–1:54:13)

Sam Altman discusses the timeline for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), suggesting it could arrive by 2028. He defines a key threshold as the moment when more of the world's "cognitive capacity" resides inside data centers than outside of them, though he admits to "huge error bars" in this prediction.

Keywords: [agi](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/agi.md), artificial general intelligence, cognitive capacity, error bars, [sam altman](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/sam-altman.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/32.md)

### 33. AI Business Model, Too Cheap to Meter (1:54:14–1:58:37)

Sam Altman compares the future of AI to the energy industry's failed "too cheap to meter" promise, envisioning intelligence as a utility like water or electricity. He describes a business model based on selling "tokens" for reasoning, where AI agents run proactively in the background of daily life.

Keywords: [sam altman](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/sam-altman.md), [energy industry](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/energy-industry.md), [tokens](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/tokens.md), utility, [intelligence](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/intelligence.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/33.md)

### 34. Value for Value Model, No Agenda Art Generator (1:58:37–2:01:30)

The hosts explain the "Value for Value" funding model, which relies on listener contributions of time, talent, and treasure. They credit artist Nestworks for the episode's artwork, titled "Hose Water," which was created using a hybrid of Photoshop and AI tools.

Keywords: [value for value](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/value-for-value.md), [nestworks](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/nestworks.md), [no agenda art generator](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/no-agenda-art-generator.md), [podcasting](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/podcasting.md), [artwork](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/artwork.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/34.md)

### 35. Executive Producer Credits, JCal Donation (2:01:30–2:06:07)

The show acknowledges top donors, including Sir Salahouser and Jason Calacanis (JCal), who contributed $1,000 and $888.88 respectively. These contributions grant "Executive Producer" status and support the show's operations during John C. Dvorak's medical recovery.

Keywords: [jason calacanis](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/jason-calacanis.md), sir salahouser, [executive producer](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/executive-producer.md), [knighthood](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/knighthood.md), [donations](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/donations.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/35.md)

### 36. Sponsor segment: Classical Conversations Homeschooling, Roswell Georgia (2:06:08–2:09:26)

A donation note from Sandra Walker promotes "Classical Conversations," a Christ-centered homeschooling community in Roswell, Georgia. The program emphasizes a classical education model based on reading, writing, and arithmetic, and notably prohibits screens in the classroom.

Keywords: classical conversations, [homeschooling](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/homeschooling.md), roswell georgia, sandra walker, [education](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/education.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/36.md)

### 37. International Donor Roll, Baroness of Gers (2:09:26–2:14:24)

Donations arrive from international listeners in the Netherlands, Canada, and France. Dame Isabel Pearson requests a title upgrade to "Baroness of Gers" in Southwest France, where she uses Mimi's "Too Many Eggs" cookbook in her farm-to-table kitchen.

Keywords: [netherlands](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/netherlands.md), [ontario](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/ontario.md), [france](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/france.md), [baroness](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/baroness.md), [donations](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/donations.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/37.md)

### 38. Sponsor segment: Fannin Fitness, Handshake Strength Training (2:14:24–2:17:52)

Colin Fannin of Fannin Fitness promotes his online fitness and nutrition solutions, specifically highlighting "grip strength" training. He suggests that a strong handshake can lead to better compensation packages, directing listeners to his website for consultations.

Keywords: fannin fitness, grip strength, [nutrition](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/nutrition.md), [kamala harris](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/kamala-harris.md), [jingles](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/jingles.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/38.md)

### 39. Sponsor segment: AI Coding Critique, Gigawatt Coffee Roasters (2:17:53–2:21:18)

Listener Zach Metzinger critiques AI-generated code as "Rube Goldberg-esque slop" that lacks human common sense. Following this, Eli the Coffee Guy promotes Gigawatt Coffee Roasters, offering a discount code for listeners to "stay caffeinated."

Keywords: zach metzinger, [ai slop](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/ai-slop.md), gigawatt coffee roasters, [eli the coffee guy](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/eli-the-coffee-guy.md), rube goldberg

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/39.md)

### 40. Sponsor segment: Image Makers Inc, Resume Writing Services (2:21:18–2:24:37)

Linda Lupatkin, the "Duchess of Jobs," promotes her resume writing and career transition services at Image Makers Inc. She emphasizes executive-level positioning for job seekers and offers "health karma" to John C. Dvorak during his recovery.

Keywords: [linda lupatkin](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/linda-lupatkin.md), [image makers inc](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/image-makers-inc.md), resume writing, career transition, [jobs](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/jobs.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/40.md)

### 41. Senator John Kennedy, Mars Funding Satire (2:24:42–2:27:12)

A clip of Senator John Kennedy features a satirical remark about President Biden's spending habits, suggesting that if life were discovered on Mars, the administration would immediately send it money. The hosts praise Kennedy's humor and his ability to find "fiscal conservatism" in unusual places.

Keywords: [john kennedy](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/john-kennedy.md), [joe biden](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/joe-biden.md), [mars](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/mars.md), fiscal conservatism, [satire](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/satire.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/41.md)

### 42. DHS Funding Crisis, TSA Security Theater (2:27:13–2:29:28)

The Department of Homeland Security faces a funding quagmire, leading to potential pay delays for TSA agents. The hosts criticize the agency as a "money sink" and dismiss many of its protocols as "security theater" designed to address threats that never materialized.

Keywords: [dhs](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/dhs.md), [tsa](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/tsa.md), [fema](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/fema.md), [security theater](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/security-theater.md), [kristi noem](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/kristi-noem.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/42.md)

### 43. Constitutional Observers, ICE Surveillance Tactics (2:29:29–2:33:38)

NPR reports on "constitutional observers" in Minneapolis who monitor ICE activities. One observer, Emily, recounts an incident where a masked federal agent addressed her by name and recited her home address after photographing her license plate, a tactic viewed as intimidation.

Keywords: [npr](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/npr.md), [ice](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/ice.md), constitutional observer, [surveillance](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/surveillance.md), [minneapolis](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/minneapolis.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/43.md)

### 44. Palantir ELITE App, Medicaid Data Sharing (2:33:38–2:37:31)

ICE agents utilize a Palantir-developed app called ELITE (Enhanced Leads Identification and Targeting for Enforcement) to locate individuals for deportation. The app reportedly pulls data from HHS and Medicaid records, as well as commercial data brokers and license plate readers.

Keywords: [palantir](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/palantir.md), elite app, [hhs](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/hhs.md), [medicaid](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/medicaid.md), [facial recognition](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/facial-recognition.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/44.md)

### 45. Mass Surveillance Defense, Shoplifting Prevention (2:37:30–2:43:12)

The hosts discuss the proliferation of automatic license plate readers (ALPRs) in retail environments like Home Depot and Walmart. These systems are used to track repeat shoplifters and aggregate small thefts into felony-level cases, serving as a "harm reduction" tool for corporate bottom lines.

Keywords: [mass surveillance](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/mass-surveillance.md), [shoplifting](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/shoplifting.md), [home depot](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/home-depot.md), [walmart](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/walmart.md), [license plate readers](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/license-plate-readers.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/45.md)

### 46. Digital Neglect, Hacked Security Cameras (2:43:12–2:47:14)

Security researchers warn that "digital neglect"—failing to update default passwords on civilian security cameras—has allowed foreign actors like Iran to use them for intelligence gathering. Vulnerable brands like Hikvision and Dahua are frequently exploited to track traffic patterns and plan strikes.

Keywords: hikvision, dahua, [hacking](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/hacking.md), digital neglect, [intelligence](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/intelligence.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/46.md)

### 47. Health Karma Donations, International Supporter List (2:47:14–2:51:32)

A long list of supporters from Norway, Lithuania, Germany, and across the United States send "health karma" and financial support for John C. Dvorak. The hosts read names and locations of donors who contributed $88.88 or more to the program.

Keywords: [norway](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/norway.md), [lithuania](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/lithuania.md), [germany](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/germany.md), [health karma](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/health-karma.md), [donations](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/donations.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/47.md)

### 48. UK Supporter Roll, Archduke of Luna (2:51:32–2:56:00)

The donation segment continues with a significant number of contributors from the United Kingdom, including listeners in Glasgow, Birmingham, and West Sussex. Kevin McLaughlin, the "Archduke of Luna," is recognized for his recurring support.

Keywords: [united kingdom](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/united-kingdom.md), [glasgow](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/glasgow.md), [birmingham](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/birmingham.md), [archduke of luna](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/archduke-of-luna.md), [donations](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/donations.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/48.md)

### 49. Boob Donations, Dame Teresa Martine (2:56:00–2:58:41)

The show acknowledges "boob donations" (amounts ending in 80.08) and welcomes Teresa Dempster Andrews to "Damehood." She requests the title Dame Teresa Martine and looks forward to "barbecue baby back ribs" at the show's metaphorical round table.

Keywords: [boob donation](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/boob-donation.md), [8008](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/8008.md), [damehood](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/damehood.md), camarillo california, [pizzeria violetta](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/pizzeria-violetta.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/49.md)

### 50. Final Donor Acknowledgments, New Zealand and Australia (2:58:41–3:01:42)

The final round of donations includes supporters from Switzerland, New Zealand, and Australia. Listeners express their appreciation for the show's perspective and offer prayers for John C. Dvorak's speedy recovery from his recent heart procedure.

Keywords: [switzerland](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/switzerland.md), [new zealand](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/new-zealand.md), [australia](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/australia.md), speedy recovery, [donations](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/donations.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/50.md)

### 51. No Agenda Meetups, Pi Day Hootenanny (3:01:43–3:05:23)

The hosts announce upcoming "No Agenda Meetups" in Boise, East Texas, and Fredericksburg. These producer-organized events are described as "connections that give you protection," serving as a local support network for listeners in case of emergencies.

Keywords: [no agenda meetups](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/no-agenda-meetups.md), [boise](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/boise.md), [east texas](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/east-texas.md), [pi day](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/pi-day.md), [fredericksburg](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/fredericksburg.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/51.md)

### 52. End of Show ISOs, Panoxyl Zit Patch Tip (3:05:23–3:09:49)

Mimi provides the "Tip of the Day," recommending Panoxyl PM overnight spot patches and Peach Slices micro-darts for treating blemishes. The show concludes with a series of "In Search Of" (ISO) audio clips featuring humorous snippets of John C. Dvorak's voice.

Keywords: panoxyl, peach slices, zit patches, [skincare](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/skincare.md), [tip of the day](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/tip-of-the-day.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/52.md)

### 53. Show Wrap-Up, Follow the Monkey Mix (3:09:49–3:16:05)

The hosts sign off, promising to return on Sunday. The episode ends with a musical mix by "Follow the Monkey" and a final reminder for listeners to support the show via the "Value for Value" model at noagendadonations.com.

Keywords: follow the monkey, [mvp](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/mvp.md), [cookbook](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/cookbook.md), [vinegar book](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/vinegar-book.md), [adios mofos](https://search.noagendashow.net/topic/adios-mofos.md)

[Chapter transcript](https://search.noagendashow.net/episode/1850-error-bars/chapter/53.md)

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